The Holiday Period is Over, But Canadian Politics Remain Gripped by One Question: When Will Justin Trudeau Make His Decision?
The holiday season may be over, but the question on everyone’s mind in Canadian politics remains the same: when will Prime Minister Justin Trudeau make his decision about his future? The Liberal Party, led by Trudeau, has been plagued by plummeting poll numbers and internal divisions, with many members urging him to step aside.
A Largely Absent Prime Minister
Trudeau has largely disappeared from public view since December 16th, when Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned in a scathing letter that criticized the prime minister. Since then, Trudeau has been spotted at a ski resort in western Canada, but has made no public statements about his intentions.
Internal Pressure Mounts
The pressure on Trudeau to resign is mounting from within his own party. A group of Liberal MPs from the four easternmost provinces, led by Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research, have urged Trudeau to step down quickly. "Time is of the essence," said Blois, adding that it’s "not tenable" for the prime minister to stay.
The Risks of Delaying a Decision
The longer Trudeau waits to make a decision about his future, the greater the risk of provoking a Liberal rebellion, according to Nanos. "Until now, it was primarily Justin Trudeau’s personal brand that was damaged," said Nanos. "I think now the big issue is how much damage will he inflict on the party brand because he is dragging out what looks like will be his resignation at one point or another."
A Leadership Race May Be Inevitable
If Trudeau does resign, a leadership race may follow, which could take several months to complete. However, even if the Liberals are able to avoid a forced election during this time, the winner would have a relatively short period of time before being thrown into a national campaign.
The Road Ahead for the Liberal Party
The Liberal Party, which has dominated Canadian federal politics since World War II, faces a difficult road ahead in 2025. Even with a new leader, the party would need to undergo a major turnaround in public opinion just to save most of its seats, much less hold onto government.
Historical Context
The Liberals’ worst showing in any national election was in 2011, when they won 19% of the popular vote and just 34 of 308 seats. About two years later, they chose Trudeau as their new leader, who "took the Liberals out of the wilderness," according to Nanos. However, it’s possible that Trudeau may return the party to the political wilderness at the end of the next federal election.
The Impact on Canadian Politics
The outcome of this crisis will have significant implications for Canadian politics and the country as a whole. A new leadership contest could lead to a period of uncertainty and instability, which would be bad news for Canada’s economy and international relations.
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